2010 Keeper Rankings
Welcome to the fourth-annual Top-50 keepers spectacular. A few thoughts before we get to the rankings:
1. Change happens quickly in the NFL, but quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends offer considerably more year-to-year stability than running backs. While keeper leagues necessarily value short-term production more than Dynasty leagues, they also value stability more than redraft leagues. As Brian Westbrook and Jamaal Charles taught us in 2009, running backs come and go with astounding speed. You don't want to get left holding the bag when a running back's value bottoms out. Elite wide receivers and quarterbacks will hold value for multiple seasons much more reliably than an average talent or aging veteran at running back.
2. The key to fantasy success is to acquire as many impact players as possible. The NFL's list of elite players includes names such as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. What makes these marqee players stand out? Each season, roughly half of the Top-10 at any position will repeat their performance from the previous year. Any player can post a good or even great season, but it's the reliable studs that produce year-in and year-out. These players must be valued highly even if a flavor-of-the-month might post better stats in a best-case scenario the year before.
3. These rankings are geared toward short-term keeper leagues where owners are generally keeping less than five or six players from year-to-year. Let me emphasize that these are not Dynasty league ranks. Our Dynasty league series, released in four segments over the past couple of weeks, emphasizes talent over situation while looking beyond the 2010 season. Keeper rankings, on the other hand, must value talent and situation equally while focusing much of the concentration on the upcoming season.
We are assuming the scoring is for a standard non-PPR league. PPR leaguers should make the necessary adjustments on receivers and pass-catching backs.
4. The most glaring difference between redraft leagues and keeper leagues is the age factor. In fact, the 2009 season is a prime example. The sudden declines of Wesbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, and Larry Johnson served as a useful reminder to dramatically lower expectations for players on the downward trend with careers winding to a close. On the flip side, players moving up are those who have demonstrated ability in limited opportunity, players with the potential to reach star status with an increase in playing time. Running backs such as Jonathan Stewart, Shonn Greene, and Felix Jones are examples of such players who offer a level of promise commensurate with the risk.
5. As mentioned at the top, change is a constant in the NFL. Many of these player values will fluctuate during the offseason based on news from free agency, trade talks, the NFL draft, and minicamps. Keep on an eye on situations such as the Jets' backfield, the Eagles' quarterback conundrum, and the Cardinals' receivers for changes in value throughout the offseason.
On to the near misses!
[SIZE=+1]Just Missed[/SIZE]
Previous ranks in parentheses
Jermichael Finley, Packers: Considering his age, talent level and situation, there's an argument to be made for Finley as the No. 1 Dynasty league tight end. There are a handful of safer bets for 2010, however.
Brent Celek, Eagles: Battling Finley for No. 51 honors in the golden age of the tight end.
Jay Cutler, Bears (24): His talent is beyond dispute, but his decision-making has been atrocious. The hiring of pass-happy offensive genius Mike Martz bodes well for his short-term future.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers: The Crabman has already proven to be a reliable fantasy WR3, but we need to see more before putting him on par with the elite receivers for 2010.
Jerome Harrison, Browns: Harrison's late-season flurry was impressive, but his stability remains in question. How much of his success can be attributed to the late-season cupcake schedule? Can he carry the load for a full season? Can he hold off all competitors and maintain his coach's confidence in and out ever game?
Matt Ryan, Falcons: Could make the leap as a breakout star in 2010, but we need to see Top-10 fantasy production at his position before considering him an elite keeper.
Percy Harvin, Vikings: Negatives: migraine issues, potential loss of Brett Favre. Positives: monster talent, versatility, even better than he was billed to be as a receiver.
Donovan McNabb, Eagles: On the positive side, he has the explosive young trio of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. On the negative side, he's a borderline QB1 for fantasy purposes and may have a new address in the next few months.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (44): Perhaps it's time to stop giving him the benefit of the doubt and make him prove that he's an elite receiver.
Anquan Boldin, Cardinals (28, 30): Unreliable due to a myriad of injuries, and his situation will be changing drastically in 2010. Boldin is as likely to be traded as any player in the league this offseason. Even if he stays in Arizona, it's still quite a drop-off from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart.
LeSean McCoy, Eagles: Brian Westbrook isn't ready to retire, and McCoy hasn't proven to be any more than a committee back with blocking and short-yardage issues.
[SIZE=+1]Falling off the list:[/SIZE]
Ranking from last two seasons in parentheses
Wes Welker, Patriots (49, 44): Won't be 100 percent by Week 1 and may open the season on the PUP list.
Darren McFadden, Raiders (48): Held back by nagging injuries and an inability run in traffic, McFadden has been nothing more than a role player in Oakland.
Lee Evans, Bills (47): Some guys have all the luck. And then there's Evans, who has been saddled by poor quarterback play his entire career.
Thomas Jones, Jets (41): The five straight years of 290+ carries finally caught up to him in the playoffs while Shonn Greene stole the show.
Braylon Edwards, Jets (38, 11): His hands keep failing him, which is problematic when his job is to catch a football.
Reggie Bush, Saints (37, 36): Bush was a much more effective player in 2009, but that came with a dramatic falloff in playing time. Sean Payton realized Bush was best utilized as a role player, which is good for the Saints and bad for fantasy value.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks (35, 25): Overpaid possession receiver in a rebuilding offense.
Terrell Owens, Bills (33, 14): T.O. has the potential for a bounce-back season at age 37, but do you actually want to bank on that?
Kevin Smith, Lions (30): Undergoing ACL and shoulder surgery this offseason and unlikely to be anywhere close to 100 percent by Week 1.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (27, 1): "It's better to burn out than fade away."
Steve Slaton, Texans (22): Expected to fully recover from nerve damage in his neck, but Slaton was always a passing-down specialist masquerading as a feature back. The Texans will add an early-down back this offseason.
Clinton Portis, Redskins (18, 9): The legs were already gone before the concussion issues arose.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills (17, 16): Frankly, he's just not as good as Fred Jackson. Expect the Bills to take a run-heavy approach in 2010, with Lynch complementing F-Jax.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants (13, 26): Outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw in 2009, even in the red zone. Jacobs is a nice bounce-back candidate, but he's also an injury-prone timeshare back with a minor role in the passing game.
Brian Westbrook, Eagles (10, 3): Westbrook seems likely to play again in 2010, but his role and address are unknown. He remains a red-flag injury risk on top of all that.
Marion Barber, Cowboys (7, 21): Since signing his big-money deal, MBIII's per-carry average has dropped by half a yard, he's fumbling twice as often, and his touchdown percentage has been cut in half. Worse, he may have already lost his feature-back job to Felix Jones.
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[SIZE=+1]Top 50 Keepers[/SIZE]
50. Felix Jones, Cowboys: Similar to Jonathan Stewart, Jones' upside makes him a worthy keeper even in a timeshare situation. By the time December rolled around, the Cowboys seemed to have realized they couldn't keep 6.5 yards per carry buried on the bench. Though Jones rewarded his coaches' faith, his exact role for 2010 remains unknown.
49. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals (42, 14): Ocho proved that his disappointing 2008 season was an aberration, but Carson Palmer's late-season struggles are disconcerting to say the least. Can the Bengals passing game recover, or is Palmer washed up?
48. Shonn Greene, Jets: Thanks to fresh legs, Greene was clearly the team's best back in the playoffs. Come 2010, though, this backfield could be headed toward three-headed monster territory. Greene's keeper value hinges on the Jets' decision to pick up Thomas Jones' option in March.
47. Jason Witten, Cowboys (40): We can safely project 80+ receptions and 900+ yards, but Witten's needs to find the end zone more often. He's good for at least a slight bump in touchdowns next season.
46. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (26, 33): Entering the season at age 29, much of Brown's keeper value is tied up in 2010. It's also a year in which he's coming off a second straight major injury while Ricky Williams recorded one of the three best age-32 seasons of all time.
45. Pierre Thomas, Saints (50): Thomas has been one of the most effective per-play backs in the league the past two years. If he can ever convince Sean Payton that he won't get nicked up with 15-20 touches per week, we'll have a breakout star on our hands.
44. Vernon Davis, 49ers: Davis finally made good on that workout wonder talent in 2009, finishing as the league's No. 1 fantasy tight end. His 13 touchdowns tied a record, which means he's a longshot to repeat the feat in 2010.
43. Dallas Clark, Colts: Clark is coming off a career year in 2009. He could see a slight dropoff in 2010 with the young Colts receivers emerging as viable threats and Anthony Gonzalez returning to action.
42. Chris Wells, Cardinals: Kurt Warner's retirement will bring out coach Ken Whisenhunt's run-first mentality, with Wells as the primary beneficiary. Already a dynamite runner, he needs to spend the offseason working on his pass-blocking.
41. Antonio Gates, Chargers (46, 39): A Top-4 fantasy tight end in each of the past six seasons, Gates is a lock for 900 yards and eight scores.
40. Steve Smith, Giants: Finished second in the league in receptions. He's unlikely to see an increase in touchdowns, though, with Hakeem Nicks emerging and Kevin Boss and Mario Manningham preferred targets in the red-zone.
39. Sidney Rice, Vikings: This ranking is a hedge against Brett Favre retiring. If Favre stays, Rice fits squarely in the Miles Austin/Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall tier.
38. Santonio Holmes, Steelers: Holmes finished just 20 yards shy of a Top-5 finish in receiving yards. With Hines Ward approaching the decline phase, Holmes' role should continue to increase. All he needs is two or three more trips to the end zone to reach elite status.
37. Joseph Addai, Colts (30, 8): What did LenDale White teach us in 2009? Touchdown totals are incredibly fickle from season-to-season, especially when accompanied by low yards and YPC numbers. Among the more pedestrian backs in the league, Addai's longest run was just 21 yards. Big-play threat Donald Brown will eat into his production if he can stay healthy in 2010.
36. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (39) Did you realize he finished with more rushing yards than DeAngelo Williams in 2009? One of the most talented backs in the league, Stewart is a RB2 with 12-14 touches per week and a RB1 with 18-20 touches. For now, he's stuck around the RB2 range.
35. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Big Ben finished a surprising third in fantasy points per week, but the Steelers are squawking about a return to their running game roots this offseason. Coordinator Bruce Arians fought off his own ouster, however, which means the offense will continue to feature its best player.
34. Tom Brady, Patriots (36, 6): Brady will be without his most reliable receiver for the onset of 2010, and there are low rumblings of a renewed commitment to a dominant rushing attack in New England this offseason. The defense has already begun its rebuilding process, and the offense is about to embark on its own.
33. Philip Rivers, Chargers (43): Rock-solid, if not quite elite, as a fantasy entity, Rivers is a safe bet for 28-32 TDs and 4,000 yards every year.
32. Marques Colston, Saints (32, 23): Relatively consistent from season-to-season, but Robert Meachem's late-season emergence dipped into Colston's production in the second half.
31. Steve Smith, Panthers (16, 24): Over the past few years, poor Smiff has had to deal with Chris Weinke, David Carr, a 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde, and the shell-shocked Jake Delhomme of 2009. If Matt Moore's late-season epiphany is for real, Smith will return to dominance next season.
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30. Greg Jennings, Packers (25, 40): His production picked up in the second half after the offensive line began to give Aaron Rodgers more time to throw. Rodgers' No. 1 receiver offers a nice opportunity for a buy-low this offseason.
29. Tony Romo, Cowboys (29, 28): Miles Austin's emergence more than made up for Terrell Owens' banishment and Roy Williams' washout.
28. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: Josh McDaniels is building his new offense around a power-blocking scheme featuring Moreno as the centerpiece. Last year's first-rounder may not be a homerun hitter, but he's a legit chain-mover with better receiving ability than he showed as a rookie.
27. Ryan Grant, Packers (34, 27): He may not be a special talent, but Grant finished No. 8 in fantasy points in 2009. The Packers' high-flying offense provides plenty of scoring opportunities, and the offensive line should be improved in 2010.
26. DeSean Jackson, Eagles: The most dangerous playmaker in the NFL, Jackson is overly reliant on big plays. On the flip side, unique talent has to be valued highly because it finds a way to produce regardless.
25. Matt Schaub, Texans (45): Schaub's 4,770 passing yards led the league and were the sixth-most in NFL history. Even better, his nine 300-yard games were tied for second-most in NFL history. In 2010 he breaks the 30-TD barrier.
24. Roddy White, Falcons (23): Give him credit for consistency. White has 80+ catches for at least 1,150 yards in each of the past three seasons and the offense will remain largely intact for 2010.
23. Cedric Benson, Bengals: - Now the centerpiece of the Bengals' defense/ground-game philosophy, Benson is an every-down stud averaging over 100 combined yards per week.
22. Randy Moss (19, 6): Played through a separated shoulder in addition to knee and back issues in 2009. While he deserves credit for toughness, Moss will be 33 years old entering the season and his consistency has already begun to fall off.
21. Brandon Marshall, Broncos (15, 22): Where will he play in 2010? More importantly, can he stay off the police blotter and out of his new coach's doghouse? Not bloody likely.
20. Vincent Jackson, Chargers: V-Jax finished first among receivers in Footballoutsiders.com's metrics and Profootballfocus.com's rankings. The physical mismatch is already causing sleepless nights for NFL corners, and he's still improving.
19. Miles Austin, Cowboys: Finished third in fantasy points despite starting just nine games. Once Austin hit the starting lineup a month and a half into the season, only Andre Johnson produced better numbers. An elite after-the-catch receiver with a red-zone presence and a top-notch quarterback, Austin's value is more stabile than commonly believed.
18. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (14): Williams remains one of the most effective players at his position even if he's not the most talented back on his own team. He'll likely enter 2010 in the same role, but Jonathan Stewart is breathing down his neck now more than ever.
17. Matt Forte, Bears (3): Forte was overvalued going into last season, and he'll be undervalued going into 2010. Mike Martz will love his new feature back's receiving skills, and the Bears will have to address the abysmal state of their offensive line this offseason.
16. Calvin Johnson, Lions (12, 50): The best keeper-league buy of the offseason, Johnson was the only receiver in the league triple-teamed in 2009. He produced elite numbers in 2008 with the worst quarterback play in the league and no threat on the other side, and he's dominant enough to do it again. If the Lions add a No. 2 receiver while Matthew Stafford makes the leap, it's a bonus.
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15. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (11, 18): Fitz gets docked slightly for the quarterback downgrade, but he's still a good bet for 90+ receptions, 1,000+ yards and double digit touchdowns. He's been the epitome of stability at receiver.
14. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers: The Steelers are talking up an increased commitment to the ground game, with Mendenhall as the primary beneficiary. The 2008 first-rounder finished as fantasy's No. 13 back, and his increased role in the passing game should ward off bouts of inconsistency in 2010.
13. Drew Brees, Saints (20, 41): Brees has been a Top-5 fantasy QB in each of the past four seasons, finishing at least second three times. His surrounding talent and offensive system are stable, and Robert Meachem is emerging as a Robin to Marques Colston's Batman.
12. Reggie Wayne, Colts (23, 12): Dynasty leaguers may prefer Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, but Wayne is much more of a lock for elite production in 2010.
11. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (31): Finished 2009 as the top fantasy QB after placing third in 2008. Jermichael Finley's emergence as a dominant force at tight end puts the Packers offense on par with the Colts and Saints.
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Despite riding the pine for the first half of the season, Charles still finished as a Top-12 fantasy back. The poor man's Chris Johnson finished second in fantasy points over the first half of the season while finishing first in the NFL in first-down percentage. He's a 23-year-old back with demonstrated big-play ability, receiving skills, and an every-down job. What's not to like?
9. Peyton Manning, Colts (21, 19): The league's best player gets extra points for stability in keeper leagues. Manning has finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB for a unbelievable 11 straight seasons, with nine of those seasons producing Top-4 numbers. Next season could offer the best collection of receiving talent he's ever enjoyed.
8. Michael Turner, Falcons (8, 34): If not for the late-season ankle injury, Turner would have posted numbers remarkably similar to his 2008 breakout season. He remains a workhorse back with a good chance to lead the league in touchdowns.
7. Andre Johnson, Texans (9, 15): Just like last season, only six running backs topped his 1,579 yards from scrimmage. In fact, he's averaged 97.7 yards per game over the past three seasons. Unlike Larry Fitzgerald, Johnson has no questions at quarterback in 2010.
6. Steven Jackson, Rams (4, 4): We recommended sticking with S-Jax last offseason because his floor is so high even in a dysfunctional offense. His unique talent makes him a safe keeper pick with upside if the Rams finally stumble onto an offensive fix.
5. Frank Gore, 49ers (6, 7): Minor ankle injuries have made him seem less reliable than he actually is. Gore has posted Top-10 fantasy numbers in three of the past four years, including a fifth place finish in 2009.
4. Ray Rice, Ravens: Second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and easily the most productive receiving back in the league, Rice also exploded for 5.3 yards per carry. If he takes over goal-line work (like Chris Johnson in the second-half of 2009), watch out!
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (2, 29): A touchdown machine, one of the best receiving backs in the league, and a true every-down stud. Despite splitting touches for the majority of his early career, MJD has finished as a Top-10 fantasy back in three of the four years he's been in the league.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (1, 2): Fantasy position rank the past three seasons: 3, 3, 2. Not only is Peterson as safe as it gets as a keeper, he also has the upside to breakout with 2,000 yards and 20 TDs in a given season. The dramatic increase in receiving numbers bodes well for consistent fantasy production the next few years.
1. Chris Johnson, Titans (5): Vince Young was a magic elixir for Johnson. Take a look at CJ2K's numbers from Game 7 on: While rushing for 100 yards in every game, he also averaged 29.7 touches, 178.7 yards, and 1.3 TDs per week. Over 16 games, that projects to 2,256 rushing yards, 2,859 total yards, and 21 TDs. That, of course won't happen in 2010. The Titans will look to lessen his workload, which means fewer inside carries and more receptions. Regardless, the No. 1 spot is well-earned
Welcome to the fourth-annual Top-50 keepers spectacular. A few thoughts before we get to the rankings:
1. Change happens quickly in the NFL, but quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends offer considerably more year-to-year stability than running backs. While keeper leagues necessarily value short-term production more than Dynasty leagues, they also value stability more than redraft leagues. As Brian Westbrook and Jamaal Charles taught us in 2009, running backs come and go with astounding speed. You don't want to get left holding the bag when a running back's value bottoms out. Elite wide receivers and quarterbacks will hold value for multiple seasons much more reliably than an average talent or aging veteran at running back.
2. The key to fantasy success is to acquire as many impact players as possible. The NFL's list of elite players includes names such as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. What makes these marqee players stand out? Each season, roughly half of the Top-10 at any position will repeat their performance from the previous year. Any player can post a good or even great season, but it's the reliable studs that produce year-in and year-out. These players must be valued highly even if a flavor-of-the-month might post better stats in a best-case scenario the year before.
3. These rankings are geared toward short-term keeper leagues where owners are generally keeping less than five or six players from year-to-year. Let me emphasize that these are not Dynasty league ranks. Our Dynasty league series, released in four segments over the past couple of weeks, emphasizes talent over situation while looking beyond the 2010 season. Keeper rankings, on the other hand, must value talent and situation equally while focusing much of the concentration on the upcoming season.
We are assuming the scoring is for a standard non-PPR league. PPR leaguers should make the necessary adjustments on receivers and pass-catching backs.
4. The most glaring difference between redraft leagues and keeper leagues is the age factor. In fact, the 2009 season is a prime example. The sudden declines of Wesbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, and Larry Johnson served as a useful reminder to dramatically lower expectations for players on the downward trend with careers winding to a close. On the flip side, players moving up are those who have demonstrated ability in limited opportunity, players with the potential to reach star status with an increase in playing time. Running backs such as Jonathan Stewart, Shonn Greene, and Felix Jones are examples of such players who offer a level of promise commensurate with the risk.
5. As mentioned at the top, change is a constant in the NFL. Many of these player values will fluctuate during the offseason based on news from free agency, trade talks, the NFL draft, and minicamps. Keep on an eye on situations such as the Jets' backfield, the Eagles' quarterback conundrum, and the Cardinals' receivers for changes in value throughout the offseason.
On to the near misses!
[SIZE=+1]Just Missed[/SIZE]
Previous ranks in parentheses
Jermichael Finley, Packers: Considering his age, talent level and situation, there's an argument to be made for Finley as the No. 1 Dynasty league tight end. There are a handful of safer bets for 2010, however.
Brent Celek, Eagles: Battling Finley for No. 51 honors in the golden age of the tight end.
Jay Cutler, Bears (24): His talent is beyond dispute, but his decision-making has been atrocious. The hiring of pass-happy offensive genius Mike Martz bodes well for his short-term future.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers: The Crabman has already proven to be a reliable fantasy WR3, but we need to see more before putting him on par with the elite receivers for 2010.
Jerome Harrison, Browns: Harrison's late-season flurry was impressive, but his stability remains in question. How much of his success can be attributed to the late-season cupcake schedule? Can he carry the load for a full season? Can he hold off all competitors and maintain his coach's confidence in and out ever game?
Matt Ryan, Falcons: Could make the leap as a breakout star in 2010, but we need to see Top-10 fantasy production at his position before considering him an elite keeper.
Percy Harvin, Vikings: Negatives: migraine issues, potential loss of Brett Favre. Positives: monster talent, versatility, even better than he was billed to be as a receiver.
Donovan McNabb, Eagles: On the positive side, he has the explosive young trio of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. On the negative side, he's a borderline QB1 for fantasy purposes and may have a new address in the next few months.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (44): Perhaps it's time to stop giving him the benefit of the doubt and make him prove that he's an elite receiver.
Anquan Boldin, Cardinals (28, 30): Unreliable due to a myriad of injuries, and his situation will be changing drastically in 2010. Boldin is as likely to be traded as any player in the league this offseason. Even if he stays in Arizona, it's still quite a drop-off from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart.
LeSean McCoy, Eagles: Brian Westbrook isn't ready to retire, and McCoy hasn't proven to be any more than a committee back with blocking and short-yardage issues.
[SIZE=+1]Falling off the list:[/SIZE]
Ranking from last two seasons in parentheses
Wes Welker, Patriots (49, 44): Won't be 100 percent by Week 1 and may open the season on the PUP list.
Darren McFadden, Raiders (48): Held back by nagging injuries and an inability run in traffic, McFadden has been nothing more than a role player in Oakland.
Lee Evans, Bills (47): Some guys have all the luck. And then there's Evans, who has been saddled by poor quarterback play his entire career.
Thomas Jones, Jets (41): The five straight years of 290+ carries finally caught up to him in the playoffs while Shonn Greene stole the show.
Braylon Edwards, Jets (38, 11): His hands keep failing him, which is problematic when his job is to catch a football.
Reggie Bush, Saints (37, 36): Bush was a much more effective player in 2009, but that came with a dramatic falloff in playing time. Sean Payton realized Bush was best utilized as a role player, which is good for the Saints and bad for fantasy value.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks (35, 25): Overpaid possession receiver in a rebuilding offense.
Terrell Owens, Bills (33, 14): T.O. has the potential for a bounce-back season at age 37, but do you actually want to bank on that?
Kevin Smith, Lions (30): Undergoing ACL and shoulder surgery this offseason and unlikely to be anywhere close to 100 percent by Week 1.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (27, 1): "It's better to burn out than fade away."
Steve Slaton, Texans (22): Expected to fully recover from nerve damage in his neck, but Slaton was always a passing-down specialist masquerading as a feature back. The Texans will add an early-down back this offseason.
Clinton Portis, Redskins (18, 9): The legs were already gone before the concussion issues arose.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills (17, 16): Frankly, he's just not as good as Fred Jackson. Expect the Bills to take a run-heavy approach in 2010, with Lynch complementing F-Jax.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants (13, 26): Outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw in 2009, even in the red zone. Jacobs is a nice bounce-back candidate, but he's also an injury-prone timeshare back with a minor role in the passing game.
Brian Westbrook, Eagles (10, 3): Westbrook seems likely to play again in 2010, but his role and address are unknown. He remains a red-flag injury risk on top of all that.
Marion Barber, Cowboys (7, 21): Since signing his big-money deal, MBIII's per-carry average has dropped by half a yard, he's fumbling twice as often, and his touchdown percentage has been cut in half. Worse, he may have already lost his feature-back job to Felix Jones.
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[SIZE=+1]Top 50 Keepers[/SIZE]
50. Felix Jones, Cowboys: Similar to Jonathan Stewart, Jones' upside makes him a worthy keeper even in a timeshare situation. By the time December rolled around, the Cowboys seemed to have realized they couldn't keep 6.5 yards per carry buried on the bench. Though Jones rewarded his coaches' faith, his exact role for 2010 remains unknown.
49. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals (42, 14): Ocho proved that his disappointing 2008 season was an aberration, but Carson Palmer's late-season struggles are disconcerting to say the least. Can the Bengals passing game recover, or is Palmer washed up?
48. Shonn Greene, Jets: Thanks to fresh legs, Greene was clearly the team's best back in the playoffs. Come 2010, though, this backfield could be headed toward three-headed monster territory. Greene's keeper value hinges on the Jets' decision to pick up Thomas Jones' option in March.
47. Jason Witten, Cowboys (40): We can safely project 80+ receptions and 900+ yards, but Witten's needs to find the end zone more often. He's good for at least a slight bump in touchdowns next season.
46. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (26, 33): Entering the season at age 29, much of Brown's keeper value is tied up in 2010. It's also a year in which he's coming off a second straight major injury while Ricky Williams recorded one of the three best age-32 seasons of all time.
45. Pierre Thomas, Saints (50): Thomas has been one of the most effective per-play backs in the league the past two years. If he can ever convince Sean Payton that he won't get nicked up with 15-20 touches per week, we'll have a breakout star on our hands.
44. Vernon Davis, 49ers: Davis finally made good on that workout wonder talent in 2009, finishing as the league's No. 1 fantasy tight end. His 13 touchdowns tied a record, which means he's a longshot to repeat the feat in 2010.
43. Dallas Clark, Colts: Clark is coming off a career year in 2009. He could see a slight dropoff in 2010 with the young Colts receivers emerging as viable threats and Anthony Gonzalez returning to action.
42. Chris Wells, Cardinals: Kurt Warner's retirement will bring out coach Ken Whisenhunt's run-first mentality, with Wells as the primary beneficiary. Already a dynamite runner, he needs to spend the offseason working on his pass-blocking.
41. Antonio Gates, Chargers (46, 39): A Top-4 fantasy tight end in each of the past six seasons, Gates is a lock for 900 yards and eight scores.
40. Steve Smith, Giants: Finished second in the league in receptions. He's unlikely to see an increase in touchdowns, though, with Hakeem Nicks emerging and Kevin Boss and Mario Manningham preferred targets in the red-zone.
39. Sidney Rice, Vikings: This ranking is a hedge against Brett Favre retiring. If Favre stays, Rice fits squarely in the Miles Austin/Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall tier.
38. Santonio Holmes, Steelers: Holmes finished just 20 yards shy of a Top-5 finish in receiving yards. With Hines Ward approaching the decline phase, Holmes' role should continue to increase. All he needs is two or three more trips to the end zone to reach elite status.
37. Joseph Addai, Colts (30, 8): What did LenDale White teach us in 2009? Touchdown totals are incredibly fickle from season-to-season, especially when accompanied by low yards and YPC numbers. Among the more pedestrian backs in the league, Addai's longest run was just 21 yards. Big-play threat Donald Brown will eat into his production if he can stay healthy in 2010.
36. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (39) Did you realize he finished with more rushing yards than DeAngelo Williams in 2009? One of the most talented backs in the league, Stewart is a RB2 with 12-14 touches per week and a RB1 with 18-20 touches. For now, he's stuck around the RB2 range.
35. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Big Ben finished a surprising third in fantasy points per week, but the Steelers are squawking about a return to their running game roots this offseason. Coordinator Bruce Arians fought off his own ouster, however, which means the offense will continue to feature its best player.
34. Tom Brady, Patriots (36, 6): Brady will be without his most reliable receiver for the onset of 2010, and there are low rumblings of a renewed commitment to a dominant rushing attack in New England this offseason. The defense has already begun its rebuilding process, and the offense is about to embark on its own.
33. Philip Rivers, Chargers (43): Rock-solid, if not quite elite, as a fantasy entity, Rivers is a safe bet for 28-32 TDs and 4,000 yards every year.
32. Marques Colston, Saints (32, 23): Relatively consistent from season-to-season, but Robert Meachem's late-season emergence dipped into Colston's production in the second half.
31. Steve Smith, Panthers (16, 24): Over the past few years, poor Smiff has had to deal with Chris Weinke, David Carr, a 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde, and the shell-shocked Jake Delhomme of 2009. If Matt Moore's late-season epiphany is for real, Smith will return to dominance next season.
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30. Greg Jennings, Packers (25, 40): His production picked up in the second half after the offensive line began to give Aaron Rodgers more time to throw. Rodgers' No. 1 receiver offers a nice opportunity for a buy-low this offseason.
29. Tony Romo, Cowboys (29, 28): Miles Austin's emergence more than made up for Terrell Owens' banishment and Roy Williams' washout.
28. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: Josh McDaniels is building his new offense around a power-blocking scheme featuring Moreno as the centerpiece. Last year's first-rounder may not be a homerun hitter, but he's a legit chain-mover with better receiving ability than he showed as a rookie.
27. Ryan Grant, Packers (34, 27): He may not be a special talent, but Grant finished No. 8 in fantasy points in 2009. The Packers' high-flying offense provides plenty of scoring opportunities, and the offensive line should be improved in 2010.
26. DeSean Jackson, Eagles: The most dangerous playmaker in the NFL, Jackson is overly reliant on big plays. On the flip side, unique talent has to be valued highly because it finds a way to produce regardless.
25. Matt Schaub, Texans (45): Schaub's 4,770 passing yards led the league and were the sixth-most in NFL history. Even better, his nine 300-yard games were tied for second-most in NFL history. In 2010 he breaks the 30-TD barrier.
24. Roddy White, Falcons (23): Give him credit for consistency. White has 80+ catches for at least 1,150 yards in each of the past three seasons and the offense will remain largely intact for 2010.
23. Cedric Benson, Bengals: - Now the centerpiece of the Bengals' defense/ground-game philosophy, Benson is an every-down stud averaging over 100 combined yards per week.
22. Randy Moss (19, 6): Played through a separated shoulder in addition to knee and back issues in 2009. While he deserves credit for toughness, Moss will be 33 years old entering the season and his consistency has already begun to fall off.
21. Brandon Marshall, Broncos (15, 22): Where will he play in 2010? More importantly, can he stay off the police blotter and out of his new coach's doghouse? Not bloody likely.
20. Vincent Jackson, Chargers: V-Jax finished first among receivers in Footballoutsiders.com's metrics and Profootballfocus.com's rankings. The physical mismatch is already causing sleepless nights for NFL corners, and he's still improving.
19. Miles Austin, Cowboys: Finished third in fantasy points despite starting just nine games. Once Austin hit the starting lineup a month and a half into the season, only Andre Johnson produced better numbers. An elite after-the-catch receiver with a red-zone presence and a top-notch quarterback, Austin's value is more stabile than commonly believed.
18. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (14): Williams remains one of the most effective players at his position even if he's not the most talented back on his own team. He'll likely enter 2010 in the same role, but Jonathan Stewart is breathing down his neck now more than ever.
17. Matt Forte, Bears (3): Forte was overvalued going into last season, and he'll be undervalued going into 2010. Mike Martz will love his new feature back's receiving skills, and the Bears will have to address the abysmal state of their offensive line this offseason.
16. Calvin Johnson, Lions (12, 50): The best keeper-league buy of the offseason, Johnson was the only receiver in the league triple-teamed in 2009. He produced elite numbers in 2008 with the worst quarterback play in the league and no threat on the other side, and he's dominant enough to do it again. If the Lions add a No. 2 receiver while Matthew Stafford makes the leap, it's a bonus.
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15. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (11, 18): Fitz gets docked slightly for the quarterback downgrade, but he's still a good bet for 90+ receptions, 1,000+ yards and double digit touchdowns. He's been the epitome of stability at receiver.
14. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers: The Steelers are talking up an increased commitment to the ground game, with Mendenhall as the primary beneficiary. The 2008 first-rounder finished as fantasy's No. 13 back, and his increased role in the passing game should ward off bouts of inconsistency in 2010.
13. Drew Brees, Saints (20, 41): Brees has been a Top-5 fantasy QB in each of the past four seasons, finishing at least second three times. His surrounding talent and offensive system are stable, and Robert Meachem is emerging as a Robin to Marques Colston's Batman.
12. Reggie Wayne, Colts (23, 12): Dynasty leaguers may prefer Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, but Wayne is much more of a lock for elite production in 2010.
11. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (31): Finished 2009 as the top fantasy QB after placing third in 2008. Jermichael Finley's emergence as a dominant force at tight end puts the Packers offense on par with the Colts and Saints.
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Despite riding the pine for the first half of the season, Charles still finished as a Top-12 fantasy back. The poor man's Chris Johnson finished second in fantasy points over the first half of the season while finishing first in the NFL in first-down percentage. He's a 23-year-old back with demonstrated big-play ability, receiving skills, and an every-down job. What's not to like?
9. Peyton Manning, Colts (21, 19): The league's best player gets extra points for stability in keeper leagues. Manning has finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB for a unbelievable 11 straight seasons, with nine of those seasons producing Top-4 numbers. Next season could offer the best collection of receiving talent he's ever enjoyed.
8. Michael Turner, Falcons (8, 34): If not for the late-season ankle injury, Turner would have posted numbers remarkably similar to his 2008 breakout season. He remains a workhorse back with a good chance to lead the league in touchdowns.
7. Andre Johnson, Texans (9, 15): Just like last season, only six running backs topped his 1,579 yards from scrimmage. In fact, he's averaged 97.7 yards per game over the past three seasons. Unlike Larry Fitzgerald, Johnson has no questions at quarterback in 2010.
6. Steven Jackson, Rams (4, 4): We recommended sticking with S-Jax last offseason because his floor is so high even in a dysfunctional offense. His unique talent makes him a safe keeper pick with upside if the Rams finally stumble onto an offensive fix.
5. Frank Gore, 49ers (6, 7): Minor ankle injuries have made him seem less reliable than he actually is. Gore has posted Top-10 fantasy numbers in three of the past four years, including a fifth place finish in 2009.
4. Ray Rice, Ravens: Second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and easily the most productive receiving back in the league, Rice also exploded for 5.3 yards per carry. If he takes over goal-line work (like Chris Johnson in the second-half of 2009), watch out!
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (2, 29): A touchdown machine, one of the best receiving backs in the league, and a true every-down stud. Despite splitting touches for the majority of his early career, MJD has finished as a Top-10 fantasy back in three of the four years he's been in the league.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (1, 2): Fantasy position rank the past three seasons: 3, 3, 2. Not only is Peterson as safe as it gets as a keeper, he also has the upside to breakout with 2,000 yards and 20 TDs in a given season. The dramatic increase in receiving numbers bodes well for consistent fantasy production the next few years.
1. Chris Johnson, Titans (5): Vince Young was a magic elixir for Johnson. Take a look at CJ2K's numbers from Game 7 on: While rushing for 100 yards in every game, he also averaged 29.7 touches, 178.7 yards, and 1.3 TDs per week. Over 16 games, that projects to 2,256 rushing yards, 2,859 total yards, and 21 TDs. That, of course won't happen in 2010. The Titans will look to lessen his workload, which means fewer inside carries and more receptions. Regardless, the No. 1 spot is well-earned
